What Is Drought
Drought is a normal and recurring feature of climate. Although it occurs in virtually all of the world’s climatic zones, its characteristics vary significantly from one region to another. In some of the world’s most arid regions, a drought occurs when annual precipitation drops below 7 inches per year, while in the world’s most moisture rich regions, a few weeks without rain might constitute a drought! Consequently, there is no universal definition of drought. In the most general sense, drought is a result of a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage, which impacts normal water usage. The severity of a drought depends upon the degree of moisture deficiency, its duration, and the size of the affected area. Because it is so hard to develop a quantitative definition for drought, it is difficult to determine precisely when a drought starts and ends.
In the United States, droughts are among the most financially burdensome of all weather related disasters. In fact, in the 20 years preceding hurricane Katrina, the single largest U.S. weather related disaster was the drought of 1988, which resulted in over 40 billion dollars in damages throughout the central and northeastern portions of the country. Unlike impacts from flood, hurricane, tornado or other weather-related disasters, drought impacts are not always immediate. Following a flood it is fairly easy to tally up the value of the dyears. Failed crops can impact food prices well into the future. Devastated domestic livestock and wildlife herds can also take many years to recover.
Managing the Drought
Drought should not be viewed as merely a natural phenomenon or event. Its impact on society is often a result of the interplay between the natural event (reduced precipitation) and the way society responds with management of existing supplies. People often compound the impacts of drought through the mismanagement of available supplies. One example of this occurs when outdoor watering restrictions imposed by community leadership are actually perceived by the general public as being premature or unnecessary. Often in these instances while people comply with the letter of the law, water use actually rises. Consequently, an informed and caring general public is an important ingredient to successful drought management. Utah’s successful management of drought will in large part be a function of leadership providing the necessary information to the public, and people in turn responding positively. Utah’s current Drought Response plan was written during the drought of the late 80’s and early 90’s. The plan uses the SWSI to describes five drought conditions. The SWSI is a relative scale with 0 representing average conditions. A positive number indicates that water supplies are above normal, while a negative number indicates that water supplies are below normal. The first condition, Normal to wet, is really a non-drought condition and the plan merely calls for the periodic updating of SWSI data and maps. When the SWSI moves into the 0 to -1.0 range, conditions are still considered normal, with water supplies only slightly below average. Although this is not a true drought condition it is called “Emerging Drought” in the plan, primarily because of the potential for worsening conditions. During this phase, the plan merely calls for increased monitoring of data. When the SWSI moves below -1.0, the condition is a Phase I Drought. At this point the state’s Water Supply and Availability Committee is activated and begins to closely monitor water supply data and initiates the dissemination of information to the media and general public. When the SWSI moves below -2.0, it is a Phase II drought condition. At this time a Drought Review and Reporting Committee and Drought Task forces are created with members of various state agencies to coordinate drought response actions and facilitate the timely dissemination of data and information. The Governor’s Proclamation of Drought Emergency, rather than a SWSI number, triggers drought Phase III. The Governor’s declaration of drought emergency is the initial and necessary step to make available many of the state and federal drought assistance programs.
Throughout much of the United States the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), also known as the Palmer Index, is used to assess drought conditions. The Palmer Index analyzes and compares recent monthly precipitation with average or “normal” conditions. Palmer Index values are scaled from +4 (extremely moist) to -4 (extreme drought) with a value of zero (0) indicating historic average conditions. The national drought maps such as the one shown on the Drought Monitor Web Site: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ are essentially a composite of the Palmer Index numbers from around the country. The Palmer Index ranks areas into one of four drought conditions: Abnormally Dry (-1 to -1.9), Moderate Drought (-2 to -2.9), Severe Drought (-3 to -3.9), and Extreme Drought (-4.0). Throughout the summer of 2002, and much of the rest of the year, the Palmer Index classified the entire state of Utah as experiencing either moderate, severe or extreme drought conditions.
The Palmer Index works well over the long term and is very applicable for those portions of the country that depend upon monthly precipitation. But here in Utah, as in many other western states, we rely upon snowmelt runoff stored in reservoirs to get through the hot summer irrigation season. If enough snow falls in the mountains during the winter months, most areas of the state can get through the summer with little or no additional monthly precipitation. While the Palmer Index is a powerful tool for assessing the climatic trend and works well for much of the country, in Utah the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) is used to monitor drought status. Instead of comparing recent monthly precipitation with normal precipitation, the SWSI compares gauged steam flow and current reservoir storage with average stream flow and reservoir storage conditions. This comparison provides us with a much more accurate assessment of our ability to deal with the drought situation.